Multiples and Private Company Valuation

How Level II tests justified multiples, comparables, EV metrics, normalized earnings, and private company valuation adjustments.

Market-based valuation is one of the most dangerous Level II comfort zones. Multiples feel intuitive, but the exam repeatedly tests whether the comparables are actually comparable, whether the earnings base is normalized, and whether private-company adjustments break the easy public-market shortcuts.

Why This Lesson Matters

Candidates often miss these questions because they:

  • accept a low multiple as proof of undervaluation
  • ignore differences in growth, profitability, leverage, or accounting quality across peers
  • use EV or price multiples without checking the underlying cash-flow definition
  • forget that private-company valuation requires control, marketability, and discount-rate adjustments

The stronger reader asks whether the multiple is anchored to comparable economics.

Two Main Approaches To Multiples Need To Be Kept Separate

ApproachWhat it asksStrength
Method of comparablesHow does the company price relative to similar firms?Fast market check anchored to peer evidence
Forecasted-fundamentals approachWhat multiple is justified by expected growth, payout, returns, or required return?Stronger economic grounding when peers are noisy

Level II often tests whether the candidate knows when one approach is doing more analytical work than the other.

Normalized Earnings Matter More Than The Headline EPS

IssueWhy it matters
One-time gains or lossesCan distort the apparent valuation multiple
Cyclical peak or trough earningsMakes current P/E misleading
Different accounting policiesWeakens peer comparison
Cross-border differencesCan make superficially similar multiples non-comparable

This is why the exam often includes extra line-item detail that looks annoying but actually determines whether the multiple is usable.

Justified Multiples Come From Valuation Logic

Under a Gordon-style framework, one common justified leading P/E relation is:

$$ \text{Justified leading } P/E = \frac{\text{payout ratio}}{r-g} $$

A justified P/B relation can be expressed as:

$$ \text{Justified } P/B = \frac{ROE - g}{r-g} $$

The exact use case matters less than the principle: a multiple is not “cheap” or “rich” without a view on growth, payout, risk, and profitability.

Enterprise Value Multiples Answer A Different Question Than Price Multiples

Multiple familyWhat it evaluates
Price multipleValue relative to equity measures such as earnings, sales, or book value
EV multipleValue of the whole enterprise relative to operating measures such as EBITDA

Level II often tests whether EV/EBITDA or another EV metric is cleaner when leverage differences make price multiples harder to compare.

PEG And Momentum Need Careful Interpretation

ToolBest useCommon trap
PEG ratioQuick growth-adjusted multiple screenTreating it as a full valuation model
Momentum indicatorsContext for market behavior and price actionUsing them as a substitute for fundamental valuation

The exam may include these because candidates often overstate what they can prove.

Private Company Valuation Requires Public-Market Logic To Be Adjusted

Private-company issueWhy it changes valuation
No daily market priceMarketability discount may matter
Different governance and control rightsControl premiums or discounts can matter
Cash-flow normalization issuesOwner compensation and related-party effects may distort earnings
Discount-rate estimationCAPM may need expansion or build-up adjustments

This is where Level II often tests whether the candidate knows public-market shortcuts do not transfer cleanly to private-company work.

Income, Market, And Asset-Based Approaches Serve Different Private-Company Cases

ApproachBest fit
Income-basedValue tied to expected future earnings or cash flow
Market-basedPeer or transaction evidence is available and truly comparable
Asset-basedAsset values dominate, operations are secondary, or liquidation-style context matters

The exam usually tests why a particular approach fits the company described.

How CFA-Style Questions Usually Test This

  • by asking whether the comparable set is actually comparable
  • by testing justified versus observed multiples
  • by forcing a choice between price and EV multiples when leverage differs
  • by asking which private-company adjustment or valuation approach is most relevant

Mini-Case

A private firm is valued using the median P/E of public peers with no adjustment for marketability or owner-specific expense distortions. The number looks efficient, but the analysis is weak. A stronger answer recognizes that private-company valuation often requires both earnings normalization and valuation adjustments beyond the raw public-peer multiple.

That is classic Level II design: the shortcut only works if the economics remain comparable.

Common Traps

  • treating a low observed multiple as self-evident undervaluation
  • using EV metrics without checking the denominator definition
  • ignoring normalized earnings adjustments
  • carrying public-company multiples directly into private-company valuation without further adjustment

Sample CFA-Style Question

Which factor most strongly supports using an enterprise value multiple instead of a price multiple when comparing two firms?

Best answer: Meaningful differences in leverage, because EV-based measures can provide a cleaner comparison of operating value before financing structure effects dominate equity-only multiples.

Why: Level II often tests whether the chosen multiple matches the valuation problem.

Continue In This Chapter